Mathematicians rely on numbers, but finding words to explain different levels of certainty has stymied everyone from the ...

Explore the binomial tree model's use in option pricing, its workings, and examples. Learn how this model estimates intrinsic ...

The probability that the National Bureau of Economic Research will someday determine a national recession began in the U.S. between December 2025 and December 2026 has fallen below twenty percent.

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Dr. Lance B. Eliot is a world-renowned AI scientist and consultant. In today’s column, I examine a newly revealed technique in ...

Online data has the potential to transform how researchers and companies produce election forecasts. Social media surveys, online panels, and even comments scraped from the internet can offer valuable ...

Objectives To examine the relative importance of the drivers of mental health care-seeking intention and how these, along with intention itself, are geographically distributed across integrated care ...

remove-circle Internet Archive's in-browser bookreader "theater" requires JavaScript to be enabled. It appears your browser does not have it turned on. Please see ...

A percent chance of precipitation shows the probability there will be at least 0.01 inch of rain, snow or sleet at a given location. When you purchase through links on our site, we may earn an ...

This technical note covers household surveys with a focus on probability sampling, bias, and survey weights. It explains how households are selected in a representative way from a population for a ...

We clear up confusion over ActiVote, a prolific pollster with unique methods. If you, like me, spend too much time perusing 538's polls page, you may have noticed this summer has seen a lot of polls ...