Understanding Credibility Theory in Actuarial Science

Discover how credibility theory helps actuaries use historical data to estimate risks and set insurance premiums; learn how ...

Dutch Book Theorem Explained: Profit from Misjudged Probabilities

Discover how the Dutch Book Theorem reveals profit opportunities in betting and finance when probabilities are misjudged.
IEEE

The Conditional Regret-Capacity Theorem for Batch Universal Prediction

Abstract: We derive a conditional version of the classical regret-capacity theorem. This result can be used in universal prediction to find lower bounds on the minimal batch regret, which is a ...
IEEE

Short-Term Load Probability Prediction Based on Conditional Generative Adversarial Network Curve Generation

Abstract: To ensure the stable and secure operation of the power system, we propose a method for short-term load probability prediction based on Conditional Generative Adversarial Network (CGAN) curve ...
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A simple explanation of Bayes’ theorem anyone can understand

Get a simple explanation of Bayes’ Theorem that anyone can understand, even with no advanced math background. This video breaks the idea down using clear examples and intuitive reasoning to show how ...