Discover how credibility theory helps actuaries use historical data to estimate risks and set insurance premiums; learn how ...

Abstract: Increasingly, for many application areas, it is becoming important to include elements of nonlinearity and non-Gaussianity in order to model accurately the underlying dynamics of a physical ...

We use Bayesian meta-analysis methods to estimate the impact of unconditional cash transfers (UCTs). Aggregating evidence from 115 studies of 72 UCT programs in middle and low income countries, we ...

Incrementality testing in Google Ads is suddenly within reach for far more advertisers than before. Google has lowered the barriers to running these tests, making lift measurement possible even ...

Abstract: Bayesian optimization (BO) is a framework for global optimization of expensive-to-evaluate objective functions. Classical BO methods assume that the objective function is a black box.